Learn

Poker Math Academy

A course, not a blog. 31 lessons so far, in order, each short and each built around a tool you can change. Start at the top if probability is new to you; jump in anywhere if it isn’t.

1. Module 1

   Probability foundations

   The deck as a counting problem. Everything else is built on this.

   1. The deck is a probability space5 min
   2. Probability versus odds4 min
   3. Combinations: counting without listing6 min
   4. One card, then another6 min
2. Module 2

   Poker hands

   The rankings, how rare each hand is, and best-five-of-seven.

   1. Hand rankings are frequency rankings5 min
   2. Best five of seven5 min
3. Module 3

   Starting hand math

   1,326 combinations, 169 hands, and what the 4 : 12 split means.

   1. 1,326 combinations, 169 hands5 min
   2. Why 4 : 12 matters5 min
4. Module 4

   Outs

   The cards that help, counted honestly.

   1. What is an out6 min
   2. Clean and dirty outs6 min
5. Module 5

   Draw probabilities

   From outs to a percentage, on each street.

   1. Flop to turn, turn to river, flop to river6 min
   2. The Rule of 2 and 4, and its error4 min
6. Module 6

   Pot odds

   The price of a call, and the equity that pays for it.

   1. Pot odds in one formula6 min
   2. Break-even equity by bet size4 min
7. Module 7

   Implied odds

   Future money, and the uncertainty that comes with it.

   1. Implied odds: paying with money you have not won yet7 min
   2. Reverse implied odds: when hitting still loses6 min
8. Module 8

   Equity

   Your share of the pot, and its shape across the deck.

   1. What equity means5 min
   2. Equity has a shape6 min
   3. Hand vs range7 min
   4. Range vs range7 min
   5. Equity realisation5 min
9. Module 9

   Combinatorics

   Combos, blockers, card removal, value and bluff counts.

   1. Counting combinations in a range6 min
   2. Blockers and card removal6 min
   3. Value combos vs bluff combos7 min
10. Module 10

    Expected value

    Turning probabilities into money decisions.

    1. Expected value of a call6 min
11. Module 11

    Variance

    Expected outcomes, standard deviation, downswings, distributions.

    1. Why 70% favourites lose 30% of the time6 min
    2. Standard deviation and sample size6 min
    3. Reading a distribution of outcomes5 min
12. Module 12

    Tournament mathematics

    ICM, risk premium, bubble factors, bounties.

    1. Chips are not dollars: ICM7 min
    2. Risk premium and the bubble7 min
    3. Bounty mathematics5 min