Reverse implied odds: when hitting still loses
Some cards that make your hand make a better one for the opponent. That is a cost, and it is measurable.
6 minute read
Reverse implied odds are the mirror image: money you lose on later streets when you make your hand and it is second-best. The eight-high flush against the ace-high flush. Bottom two pair against a set. The straight on a board that also completes a flush.
You can see the shape of it directly. Below, a flush draw against a set: the hearts that complete the flush also give the set a full house on ten of forty-four rivers — those are the outs that come with reverse implied odds attached.
Every possible turn card
Click a card to deal it and see the rivers.
Computing every runout…
- Weak flush draws (the 8♥ 6♥ kind) have reverse implied odds against bigger flush draws.
- Small pairs on high boards have them against overpairs when they make two pair.
- Straights on two-tone boards have them against flushes.
- The stronger and more hidden your draw, the more the implied odds run in your favour; the weaker and more visible, the more they run against you.
Quick check
Why does a nut flush draw have better implied odds than a nine-high flush draw, even though both have nine outs?
Show answer
When both hit, the nut draw wins the extra money; the nine-high draw can lose it to a higher flush. Same probability, opposite sign on the future money.