Variance
Expected outcomes, standard deviation, downswings, distributions.
- 6 min1Why 70% favourites lose 30% of the time
A probability is a long-run frequency, not a promise about the next hand.
- 6 min2Standard deviation and sample size
How far results wander from their average, and why it takes so many hands to know anything.
- 5 min3Reading a distribution of outcomes
The full picture of a decision is a shape, not a number.