Clean and dirty outs
Some outs also help your opponent. The honest count depends on what they hold.
6 minute read
Against a specific hand, an out is a card that puts you ahead. Some of your 'outs' do that and then get taken away: the heart that completes your flush but pairs the board and fills a set. Others complete your straight while giving an opponent a bigger flush.
The 15 highlighted cards are your outs.
What you’re drawing to
- Flush draw9 outs
- Backdoor straight draw0.93%
10 of the 1081 turn-and-river combinations make a straight.
- Two overcards6 outs
Pairing an overcard makes top pair, which is not always the best hand.
Shortcut vs. exact
| Cards to come | Rule of 2/4 | Exact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turn only | 30% | 31.91% | −1.91 pts |
| Turn and river | 60% | 54.12% | +5.88 pts |
The explorer measures cleanliness rather than guessing at it: for each out on the turn, it enumerates every river and counts how often you are still ahead. A heart that leaves you ahead on 34 of 44 rivers is a decent out; the 2♥ that makes the set a full house is not an out at all.
Discounting
At the table you cannot enumerate rivers, so players discount: count a dirty out as half. The exact tools here tell you when that rule of thumb is generous and when it is stingy.
Quick check
You have the nut flush draw against a flopped set. Why is it fewer than nine outs?
Show answer
The flush cards that pair the board give the set a full house. On Q♥ 7♥ 2♣ vs 7♣ 7♦ the 2♥ is not an out: eight, not nine.