Skip to content
MyPokerOdds

ICM calculator

Chips are not dollars. Enter the stacks and the payouts to see what each stack is worth in prize money, then set up an all-in to see how much more than a coin flip you need before calling shows a profit.

Stacks and prizes

4 left · 3 paid
PlayerChipsChip sharePrize equityPrize share
You40.0%$336.0333.6%
P230.0%$294.8829.5%
P320.0%$235.8723.6%
P410.0%$133.2113.3%

Payouts

Malmuth–Harville ICM: your chance of first is your chip share; later places follow from the remaining chips. It ignores blinds, position and skill — a model, not a prophecy.

Calling an all-in

Fold and keep
$336.03
At risk
9,000 chips
If you win
$435.28
If you lose
$166.63
Chips say
50%
break-even equity
Money says
63.1%
break-even equity
Risk premium
+13.1 pts

Risking 9,000 chips to win 9,000 is a coin flip in chips. In prize money the downside costs more than the upside gains, so you need 63.1% hand equity before calling shows a profit.

How ICM works

The Independent Chip Model assumes your chance of finishing first is your share of the chips. Your chance of finishing second is the sum, over every possible winner, of their chance of winning times your share of the chips that remain — and so on down the paid places. Multiply each finishing probability by its prize and add them up: that is your tournament equity.

The result is always the same shape: big stacks are worth less than their chip share, short stacks more. A chip you win is worth less than a chip you lose, which is why calling an all-in needs more than 50% equity even when the chips at risk are equal.

What it leaves out

ICM knows nothing about blinds, position, who acts next, or skill. Near a bubble with fast blinds, the short stack’s equity is lower than ICM says; a strong player’s equity is higher. Treat the numbers as the baseline the adjustments are made from.

Bounties change the calculation in the other direction: eliminating a player pays immediately, which lowers the equity you need. The bounty lesson shows the formula. The full module starts at chips are not dollars.