Bad Beat Lab
Put the hands back the way they were when the money went in. The lab shows every way it could have ended, how often you lose and how, and — if you add the cards that actually came — exactly how unlikely that was. Then it deals the spot out a hundred or a thousand times so you can see what variance looks like.
Add the turn and river that actually came to see how that run-out compares.
What this lab is for
Not consolation. An 82% favourite loses 18% of the time — about one hand in five and a half — and a player who sees that spot a few hundred times a year will lose it dozens of times. The point of the numbers is to make that expected, so it stops feeling like evidence of anything.
The “how you lose” breakdown is exact: every remaining run-out is enumerated and sorted by the hand that beat you. The repeated deals are random, seeded, and labelled — they illustrate the shape of variance, not the probability itself.
The two questions worth asking
First: was the decision good when the money went in? That is a question about equity and price — the pot odds calculator answers it. A good decision that loses is still a good decision.
Second: how often should I expect this? That is what the lab answers. If the answer is “one time in six”, then the next few hundred hands contain many of them, and your job is to keep making the decision that wins the other five.