How often do connectors flop an open-ended straight draw?
Suited connectors like 9-8 flop an open-ended straight draw 9.6% of the time, and any straight draw (including gutshots) 26.2%.
A connector needs two of its three neighbouring ranks on either side to make an open-ender, and there are several arrangements (7-6, T-7, J-T with the right gaps), so the count is best done by enumeration: every flop is checked for how many ranks would complete a straight using a hole card. Two or more ranks is an open-ender or double gutshot; one is a gutshot.
Add the roughly 11% of flush draws a suited connector also flops and the hand connects with the flop, one way or another, more often than its raw equity suggests — which is why it plays so much better multi-way than ace-x.
- Flops that give two ranks that complete a straight1,881
- All flops19,600C(50, 3)
- Probability9.60%1881 / 19600
Try it
Change any card; the numbers recompute from the same engine that produced the answer above.
The 14 highlighted cards are your outs.
What you’re drawing to
- Open-ended straight draw8 outs
- Two overcards6 outs
Pairing an overcard makes top pair, which is not always the best hand.
Shortcut vs. exact
| Cards to come | Rule of 2/4 | Exact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turn only | 28% | 29.79% | −1.79 pts |
| Turn and river | 56% | 51.16% | +4.84 pts |