What are the odds of hitting an open-ended straight draw?
An open-ended straight draw completes 31.45% of the time by the river and 17.02% on the turn.
Probability
31.45%
about 1 time in 3.2
on the next card
17.02%
Exact. Hypergeometric probability over the 47 unseen cards.
Four cards in a row can be completed at either end, and each end has four cards of that rank: eight outs. That is 17.02% on the turn and 31.45% by the river, slightly below a flush draw.
If one of your outs would also complete a flush for an opponent, it is not a clean out. The draw odds explorer can show which of your eight are safe against a specific hand.
- Outs to a straight8
- Unseen cards on the flop4752 − 2 − 3
- Ways to miss twice741C(39, 2) = 741
- Total two-card run-outs1,081C(47, 2) = 1081
- Probability of hitting by the river31.45%1 − 741 / 1081
- Rule of 4 estimate32.00%8 × 4%
- On the turn alone17.02%8 / 47
- Rule of 2 (turn)16.00%8 × 2%
Try it
Change any card; the numbers recompute from the same engine that produced the answer above.
Your hand
Board
Hand now
Jack High
Outs
14
of 47 unseen
By the turn
29.8%
14 / 47
By the river
51.2%
two cards to come
The 14 highlighted cards are your outs.
What you’re drawing to
- Open-ended straight draw8 outs
- Two overcards6 outs
Pairing an overcard makes top pair, which is not always the best hand.
Shortcut vs. exact
| Cards to come | Rule of 2/4 | Exact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turn only | 28% | 29.79% | −1.79 pts |
| Turn and river | 56% | 51.16% | +4.84 pts |