What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
With a flush draw on the flop you complete the flush 34.97% of the time by the river, and 19.15% on the turn alone.
With four cards of one suit, nine of the thirteen remain unseen. Nine outs from 47 unseen cards is 19.15% on the turn; with two cards to come the chance of hitting at least once is 34.97% — a little over one time in three.
The Rule of 4 says 36%; the Rule of 2 says 18%. Both are within about a point. Remember that not every flush is the best hand: a paired board can give an opponent a full house, and a lower flush loses to a higher one.
- Outs to a flush9
- Unseen cards on the flop4752 − 2 − 3
- Ways to miss twice703C(38, 2) = 703
- Total two-card run-outs1,081C(47, 2) = 1081
- Probability of hitting by the river34.97%1 − 703 / 1081
- Rule of 4 estimate36.00%9 × 4%
- On the turn alone19.15%9 / 47
- Rule of 2 (turn)18.00%9 × 2%
Quick check
A flush draw on the flop — how often does it get there by the river?
Show answer
34.97%, about 35%.
Try it
Change any card; the numbers recompute from the same engine that produced the answer above.
The 15 highlighted cards are your outs.
What you’re drawing to
- Flush draw9 outs
- Backdoor straight draw0.93%
10 of the 1081 turn-and-river combinations make a straight.
- Two overcards6 outs
Pairing an overcard makes top pair, which is not always the best hand.
Shortcut vs. exact
| Cards to come | Rule of 2/4 | Exact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turn only | 30% | 31.91% | −1.91 pts |
| Turn and river | 60% | 54.12% | +5.88 pts |