How often do two unpaired cards flop a pair or better?
Unpaired hole cards make a pair or better on the flop 32.8% of the time — about one flop in three. Exactly one pair, with nothing more, is 26.9%.
Six cards help — three of each rank — and the flop is three cards from fifty. The chance that none of the six appears is C(44, 3) ÷ C(50, 3) = 67.6%, so you connect 32.4% of the time. Most of that is a single pair; two pair, trips and better are the remaining couple of percent.
The famous corollary: ace-king misses the flop two times in three. So does every other unpaired hand, which is why continuation bets work and why folding to one is not a disaster.
- Flops that pair one of your cards or better6,420
- All flops19,600C(50, 3)
- Probability32.76%6420 / 19600
Quick check
How often does ace-king flop a pair or better?
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About 32% — it misses two flops in three.
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