What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
With a flush draw on the flop you complete the flush 34.97% of the time by the river, and 19.15% on the turn alone.
With four cards of one suit, nine of the thirteen remain unseen. Nine outs from 47 unseen cards is 19.15% on the turn; with two cards to come the chance of hitting at least once is 34.97% — a little over one time in three.
The Rule of 4 says 36%; the Rule of 2 says 18%. Both are within about a point. Remember that not every flush is the best hand: a paired board can give an opponent a full house, and a lower flush loses to a higher one.
- Outs to a flush9
- Unseen cards on the flop4752 − 2 − 3
- Ways to miss twice703C(38, 2) = 703
- Total two-card run-outs1,081C(47, 2) = 1081
- Probability of hitting by the river34.97%1 − 703 / 1081
- Rule of 4 estimate36.00%9 × 4%
- On the turn alone19.15%9 / 47
- Rule of 2 (turn)18.00%9 × 2%
Quick check
A flush draw on the flop — how often does it get there by the river?
Show answer
34.97%, about 35%.
Try it
Change any card; the numbers recompute from the same engine that produced the answer above.
You get there about 11 times in 20 by the river.
The 15 highlighted cards are your outs.
What you’re drawing to
- Flush draw9 outs
- Backdoor straight draw0.93%
10 of the 1081 turn-and-river combinations make a straight.
- Two overcards6 outs
Pairing an overcard makes top pair, which is not always the best hand.
Shortcut vs. exact
| Cards to come | Rule of 2/4 | Exact | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turn only | 30% | 31.91% | −1.91 pts |
| Turn and river | 60% | 54.12% | +5.88 pts |